Phillies vs Marlins Prediction - MLB Picks 7/7/23

Miami Marlins (51-38) vs Philadelphia Phillies (47-39)

Game Info: Friday, July 7, 2023 at 6:40 pm (loanDepot park)

Sandy Alcantara (3-7) (4.93) vs Zack Wheeler (7-4) (4.03)

Betting Odds: Miami Marlins +105 / Philadelphia Phillies -125 --- Over/Under: 7.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Philadelphia Phillies will play the Miami Marlins in Game 1 of their series on Friday night at loanDepot park in Miami, Florida.

Phillies Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies are 47-39 this season and they have won four of their last five Games. Philadelphia is coming off of a series win against Tampa Bay, where they won all three Games played. The Philadelphia pitching staff has a 4.04 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a .240 opponent batting average this season. The Phillies offense has scored 391 runs with a .259 batting average and a .322 on base percentage. Nick Castellanos is batting .305 with 13 home runs and 55 RBI’s for the Phillies. The projected starting pitcher for Philadelphia is Zack Wheeler, who is 7-4 with a 4.03 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP over 98.1 innings pitched this year.

Marlins Preview

The Miami Marlins are 51-38 this season and they have won three of their last four Games. Miami is coming off of a series win against St. Louis, where they won three out of four Games. The Miami pitching staff has a 4.09 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a .243 opponent batting average. The Marlins offense has scored 371 runs with a .264 batting average and a .324 on base percentage this year. Jorge Soler is batting .252 with 22 home runs and 49 RBI’s for the Marlins. The projected starting pitcher for Miami is Sandy Alcantara, who is 3-7 with a 4.93 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP over 107.2 innings pitched this season.

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Trends

Philadelphia is 14-3 in their last 17 road Games and 36-16 in their last 52 Friday Games. The under is 5-2-1 in Philadelphia’s last 8 Games against the NL East. Miami is 5-1 in their last 6 Game one’s of a series and 18-6 in their last 24 home Games. The over is 7-0 in Miami’s last 7 Game one’s of a series. Philadelphia is 5-1 in these two teams last 6 head to head meetings in Miami.

Pick

Miami comes into this Game in second place in the NL East standings, while Philadelphia is a couple Games behind them in third place. Miami is starting Sandy Alcantara, who has allowed 4, 1, 5, and 5 earned runs over his last four starts. Philadelphia is starting Zack Wheeler, who has allowed nine earned runs over his last two starts (10.1 IP). Neither starting pitcher has been particularly sharp recently, so I am taking the over here. 

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